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Bitcoin rose above $86,000 on Friday, reaching about $86,200 at 10:30 a.m. in London and extending its rebound to a third straight week. It gained roughly 2% this week as institutional inflows into exchange-traded funds supported demand, and about 40% in the three months through September—its strongest quarter since late 2024. The rise followed a year in which Bitcoin had at one point lost more than half its value from last October’s record above $126,000. According to Apollo Crypto’s Pratik Kala, investors had noticed Bitcoin’s relative strength despite a stalled US crypto bill and a mid-September Federal Reserve rate increase. Investors awaited Friday’s US jobs report.
Despite its recent retracement, bitcoin is on pace for its best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2024.
The largest cryptocurrency traded around $83,600 Tuesday afternoon after climbing above $86,000 in recent weeks. It is on track to lock in its first positive quarter in a year, having gained more than 40% from July to September. The digital currency has been buoyed by a strong streak of inflows into bitcoin exchange-traded funds, sparking hopes for a sustained bull market.
However, the rally has lost momentum in recent days as surging bond yields weighed on broader market sentiment. Analysts at research firm CryptoQuant warn that a crypto market correction could be looming. They point to profit-taking behaviors by traders and an uptick in tokens being transferred to exchanges—typically a precursor to selling. Furthermore, demand for spot bitcoin has slowed, while activity in speculative futures tied to bitcoin is cooling off.
One potential relief is seasonality. Historically, bitcoin has had its best monthly performance in October, boasting an average gain of 19.1% in the month, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Bitcoin fell as much as 2.2% to $82,702 on Monday, while Ether and Solana also declined. Cryptocurrencies fell alongside stocks and bonds after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; markets were also weighing the Federal Reserve’s September rate increase and the possibility of another in October. Bitcoin had briefly exceeded $87,000 last week. US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew about $2.4 billion in the week ended Sept. 25, their largest weekly inflow since October. Bitcoin has gained over 40% from July through September, reversing the previous quarter’s 14% loss. DACM’s Richard Galvin said recent weakness did not necessarily undermine the rally.
Cryptocurrencies fell Thursday after a recent rally took Bitcoin to an eight-month high. Bitcoin dropped as much as 1.6% to $82,882 after exceeding $87,000 earlier in the week; Ether fell to about $2,628, while XRP, Solana and Zcash also declined. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich attributed profit-taking to a stronger US dollar, rising bond yields and falling shares, but said the pullback might be temporary. Bitcoin had risen 9% over the past week. Traders are also watching Friday’s expiration of roughly $15 billion in Bitcoin options on Deribit, representing more than a third of open interest.
Bitcoin traders are watching Friday’s quarterly expiration of roughly $15 billion in options on Deribit. More than a third of open interest is linked to the Sept. 25 expiry, with calls concentrated at $85,000, $90,000 and $100,000. Bitcoin, near $84,000, is above the $76,000 “max pain” level. Dealer hedging could restrain gains toward $90,000-$95,000 before expiry, after which momentum may resume, according to Orbit Markets. Bitcoin has risen more than 30% since August. Traders are also rolling positions into October and December calls at $95,000-$100,000, while some March 2027 bets reach $150,000. Tesseract Group said the expiry may affect positioning rather than determine direction.
Financial-services analysts highlighted mixed prospects across global markets. Jefferies said Adyen’s incoming CFO Niclas Neglen must rebuild investor confidence. RBC raised Standard Life’s price target to 970 pence but retained sector perform, while keeping the same rating on M&G. Fitch lifted its end-2026 U.S. government bond-yield forecast to 4.8% and cut China’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.5%. Macquarie upgraded AMP to buy, citing its China pension exposure. Jefferies remained positive on Bajaj Finance and Indian banks, while Citi initiated Tata Capital at buy. TA Securities expects temporary selling pressure on Malaysian banks. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $999 million of Monday inflows, though bitcoin slipped to $86,407.
Crypto’s market value surpassed $3 trillion for the first time since January, adding more than $740 billion since the US Treasury announced increased buybacks of long-dated bonds. Bitcoin reached $87,381 before retreating to $85,100 Tuesday. Perpetual-futures open interest rose to nearly $160 billion, its highest since late October, even after Monday’s rally liquidated over $920 million in bearish bets. Analysts said fresh leveraged positions are replacing closed shorts, increasing the potential for rapid moves and cascading liquidations in either direction. US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $593 million Thursday and Friday, while Zcash and Hyperliquid’s HYPE also rallied. Traders remain uncertain whether spot demand can sustain the gains.
Bitcoin surged above the $85,000 mark on Monday, marking an 8-month high.
The flagship cryptocurrency continued its red-hot rebound, adding 4.7% to $85,117 after an uplift of nearly 6% last week. Investors shrugged off two potential hurdles—a failure to pass the Clarity Act, as well as the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point interest-rate hike—to finish the week higher.
It is now up over 30% since Aug. 19 and is holding firmly above the $80,000 level that has proved a stubborn cap in recent weeks.
“The move back above $81,000 came even after tighter monetary policy, showing that institutional demand is currently absorbing part of the pressure from higher interest rates,” wrote Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam in a note.
Bitcoin is supported by stronger exchange-traded fund inflows, positive regulatory developments and investors closing earlier bets against the cryptocurrency, according to Aslam.
Investors are looking ahead to the planned summit between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday. A truce in the tariff war is due to expire on Nov. 10, and any progress made to ease trade tensions could boost sentiment for risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin broke above $80,000 on Friday, lifting shares of crypto-linked stocks.
The largest cryptocurrency recently traded at $80,587 Friday morning, up more than 5% from its 4 p.m. ET level on Thursday.
The move higher came despite the failure of a major crypto legislation and the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate hike in three years earlier in the week.
Analysts say relief in the markets stems partly from the news that the Securities and Exchange Commission granted exemptions on Thursday to allow venues to trade digital token versions of stocks. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has also taken steps to establish rules for crypto transactions and markets.
Investor demand may have also boosted the price: a group of bitcoin exchange-traded funds offered by firms including BlackRock registered about $160 million of inflows on Thursday, snapping a two-day streak of net outflows, according to JPMorgan data.
Gold and Bitcoin are diverging in options markets despite both being promoted as currency-debasement hedges. Around the Sept. 18 expiry, two days after the Federal Reserve decision, SPDR Gold Shares had more than five calls per put, versus roughly four calls for every three puts in BlackRock’s Bitcoin fund. Gold’s bullish positioning extends into later expiries and is supported by central-bank purchases. Bitcoin investors are retaining upside exposure while hedging against reversals after its rise from about $63,000 toward $80,000. Open interest cannot conclusively establish sentiment because positions may form complex spreads. Markets price a nearly 92% chance of a Fed rate increase Wednesday.
Ether surged as much as 8.3% Friday, while Bitcoin gained less than 4%, as liquidations of bearish leveraged positions fueled a broader cryptocurrency rally. Coinglass data showed more than $255 million in Ether shorts and $172 million in Bitcoin shorts were liquidated over 24 hours, with roughly $500 million in positions across digital assets wiped out in both directions. On Binance, about $76 million in Ether positions were liquidated, mostly shorts. LO:TECH’s Adam McCarthy said the short squeeze intensified the rally as bearish traders paid to maintain positions amid an 8% rise. Both tokens later retreated from their intraday highs.
Bitcoin declined for a fourth consecutive trading session, slipping further below $80,000 as a choppy backdrop for risk assets added to its difficulty sustaining upward momentum.
Risk appetite took a knock from renewed Middle East tensions, with oil climbing above $105 this week, while stocks and bonds fell after the latest US inflation data did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates.
The latest retreat remains within Bitcoin’s recent trading range rather than signaling a fresh breakdown. But its repeated failures to establish a foothold above $80,000 underscore how difficult it has been for the token to build on the recent rebound as US demand remains uneven.
The largest cryptocurrency dropped as much as 2.1% to $76,663.54 in early trading in New York. The token has been trading in a rough range of $60,000 to $80,000 since early February. It reached a record high of around $126,000 last October.
The slide accelerated Thursday after a report showed that the US producer price index rose 0.4% in August from the prior month and 5.4% from a year earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
The PPI report comes a day ahead of the latest update to the consumer price index, which is expected to show core inflation was relatively modest even as rising gasoline prices boosted the headline measure. Some Fed officials have signaled the rate decision at their Sept. 15-16 meeting may come down to what this week’s reports reveal.
US-listed Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $3.5 billion in August, their largest monthly inflow since July 2025, as Bitcoin gained 25% for its best month since November 2024. Bloomberg attributed renewed demand partly to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s plan to increase long-dated bond buybacks, fiscal concerns, hopes for clearer US crypto regulation and short-covering. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust accounted for roughly 88% of August net inflows. Citigroup strategists said ETF flows were a key price driver as Bitcoin approached investors’ estimated $80,000-to-$83,000 average cost basis. However, the token faced resistance near $80,000 and fell as much as 3% Tuesday to $76,393.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced his commitment to curb inflation and return it to the Fed’s “firm and fixed” 2% target, prompting traders to increase rate-hike bets. Two-year Treasury yields jumped 12 basis points to 4.35%, while the dollar rose, gold fell and 30-year yields were little changed. Swaps priced a greater than 50% chance of a quarter-point increase at the Sept. 16 meeting and at least one hike by year-end as virtually certain. Barclays shifted its forecast to hikes in September and December. Warsh cited 3.7% inflation and said underlying trends had not meaningfully improved, though analysts warned markets could reverse if the Fed again holds rates steady.
Bitcoin slipped back below $80,000 on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh pledged to bring inflation back to target, pushing short-term Treasury yields higher and cooling some of the week’s risk-on momentum.
The move was modest rather than a reversal of the broader crypto rebound. Warsh said financial conditions are not restrictive and stressed that inflation must move clearly toward the Fed’s target, reinforcing expectations that policy could stay tighter for longer. Bitcoin eased with other rate-sensitive assets but remained well above levels seen earlier this month.